Uncertainty estimation in volumetrics for supporting hydrocarbon exploration and production decision-making

A methodology is presented for uncertainty estimation in volumetrics. Firstly, we stress the need for an open hierarchical methodology. This allows for a flexible work process in estimating uncertainty throughout the asset life cycle, in which data of various scales and accuracy must be integrated. Secondly, a method is explained for the transfer of spatial uncertainty in structure and rock properties to uncertainty in hydrocarbon volume. Thirdly, a new technique is presented for calculating average water saturation. Application to a synthetic case study shows that scalar uncertainty calculation leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty compared to a spatial approach. Spatial mapping of standard deviation of net hydrocarbon column indicates extra potential in the field. Incorporation of correlations in the field between, for example, porosity, permeability and water saturation, increases the uncertainty range. Using extra wells in the uncertainty estimation reduces uncertainty. Now, the known volume lies within the estimated proven-to-probable range.