Earthquake Prediction Stochastic Models – a Sofware using Matlab Algorithms. Application to the Chile Subduction Zone

Preliminary created stochastic models for earthquake prediction have been performed in several areas over the world – Balkans, Mexico coast, Australia etc. The use of these earlier developed stochastic models is based on geometry considerations as well as the statistical distributions of the main parameters of any two consecutive seismic events: temporal and space positions and the magnitude differences. The new created software is applied now about the Chile coastal area. Data about the strong earthquakes have been used for the model application. Strong effects of migration of the seismic sources have been discovered in N-S direction. Repeatability and predominant distances of the consecutive events are also established as results of these investigations. The physical meaning of such effects is dominated by the clear zone of subduction developed there. The obtained now bi-modal distributions require the consideration of the most probable position of the next expected seismic event. The results obtained show the applicability of the suggested model. The last strong seismic event Mw8.8 occurred on 27 February 2010 is considered as a starting point for the next expected strong earthquake in the area. The acceleration of the data processing is due to the application of various algorithms, using MATLAB environment.