4D Forward Modeling to Optimize a Closed-loop Seismic Reservoir Monitoring Framework

4D seismic feasibility studies prior to an eventual time-lapse seismic survey are paramount to frame the value proposition based on the geology, reservoir characteristics, production scenarios, type of acquisition, and seismic repeat interval. These considerations will have a profound impact on cost and production. From reports in the literature, it appears that actual time-lapse seismic signals rarely match their predictions. An explanation can be found in a biased rock sampling for core analysis, but also in incorrect modeling methods with the traditional feasibility studies being too simplistic and with a need to introduce additional complexity. For the latter, a remedy is found herein through coupled 3D reservoir geomechanical models and the emerging use of 3D anisotropic full-waveform modeling to generate an accurate time-lapse seismic response in the prestack domain for analysis with appropriate levels of noise added. This field-scale modeling has to take into account the overburden, sideburden, and underburden, since production-related effects radiate out from the reservoir and can have a profound impact on drilling. The value of a detailed 4D feasibility study then further informs the wider framework of closed-loop seismic reservoir monitoring where the modeled data can also be used in parallel with the actual data processing to help with model reconciliation, catering for a dynamic integrated Earth model.