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Quantitative regional landslide hazard prediction using GIS within the Southern coast of Crimea
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 14th EAGE International Conference on Geoinformatics - Theoretical and Applied Aspects, May 2015, Volume 2015, p.1 - 5
Abstract
Landslides on the Southern coast of Crimea have been an object of long-term researches and explorations. However, the existing range of techniques to identify landslide formation factors and landslide predicting is losing its relevance today. This is related to the state of funding of the monitoring work that provides filling of the database required for predicting as well as to the change in research area - from grand landslide systems to shallow landslides in deluvial-eluvial deposits. The introduction and substantiation of the relevant method of regional predicting of landslides distribution and activation in surface deposits is important to overcome these problems. We propose to analyze landslide hazard areas based on using regional predicting method with GIS. As the latter, SINMAP tool (or method) was selected - stability index mapping technique. Using the slope stability factor as a criterion for determining the landslide hazard and geological-hydrogeological approach to analyze landslide formation factors, this technique provides an opportunity to perform quantitative, i.e. deterministic spatial and temporal predicting of landslide hazard areas. The south-western landslide sub-area was selected as a test site being characterized by the highest percentage of damage by landslide forms and numbering around 600 landslides within it, most of which are specifically shallow-lying landslides the activation or formation of which is caused by joint or separate effect of man-caused load (in the form of slope undercutting, overload or overwatering), erosion and weather conditions (in the form of excessive precipitation).