Application of Multiple 3D Static Model Scenarios in a Complex Carbonate Reservoir for Accurate Production Forecasting

The need for a consistent and accurate production forecast is of upmost importance in field development planning and even more so in times of a challenging oil price. Results are also required in an ever shortening timeframe; however accurate simulation and forecasting can only be achieved using accurate 3D static models. The fundamental task is not only to create and simulate just one model version but use a variety of 3D models to get a range of results, e.g. low, middle and high cases (P90-P50-P10). Uncertainty analysis can be used to get a range of many equiprobable stochastic model realisations, from which we can choose the low to high cases. However, this approach if not tested and calibrated correctly, could lead to model versions that do not represent a realistic geological description of a reservoir. For this purpose, a more beneficial approach is to create several alternative model versions, based on geological concepts, upscaling methods, input data and decisions or variations applied in the static modelling workflow. The results are a number of models which give a consistent range of hydrocarbon production profiles allowing the assessment of the potential of the reservoir and quantification of the reservoir uncertainties and challenges