Benchmarking of Techniques for Improvement of Geological Model Predictive Ability (PK1-3 Formation, Vostochno-Messoyakhskoye Field)

The Messoyakha project is one of the priority plan of Gazpromneft Company. The main object of development is PK1-3 formation (Pokur suite) which contains considerable oil and gas reserves. PK1-3 formation was deposited in continental sedimentation environment and characterized by high facies differentiation and high uncertainty of extension and position in space. At this moment the field is on the development drilling stage, but new data show that current geological model has low level of prediction ability. Taking it into account the critical issue of the project becomes matching and application of such modeling parameters, which allow considering reservoir heterogeneity and raising predictive ability. This study includes analysis of different variations of geological modeling methods and parameters with taking onto account their uncertainty, estimation of model predictive probability and additionally verification of optimal drilling method for fluvial deposition under the low prediction condition.