Risk Assessment of Landslide Hazards in the Ukrainian Carpathians

Research deals with the assessment of landslide hazards based on the monitoring and modelling of these processes in the Ukrainian Carpathians using integrated techniques. The outcome of the assessment is the measurement of impact of these processes on the structures, transport, recreational infrastructure, and zoning of geohazards followed by recommendations for infrastructure risk management and emergency response planning.

Two approaches are used for the assessment and forecasting of geohazards. The first approach is based on GIS and statistical analysis of geo-environmental factors related to the occurrence of landslides. Based on the results of the analysis of the reference landslide area, landslide susceptibility maps have been prepared.

The second approach is based on field work, monitoring and numerical modelling of landslides for the local forecasting. Determination of stress-strain state of rocks within a particular landslide-prone slope is made by taking into account a number of geological and geomorphological factors. The numerical evaluation of stresses for the area with saturated layers is carried out using existing software, developed by the research group of Kyiv University. Results of this research are used by the government and local administrative groups for infrastructure planning and risk assessments.