Verification of predicted values of mudflow activity in prognostic modeling of mudflow hazard

Prediction of mudflow processes is the part of integral forecasting system of exogenous geological processes. Modern predictive GIS model of mudflow danger involve extrapolation of mudflow activity through multiple functional dependence of time impacts. According to the preliminary estimates [ 1 ] years of following mudflow intensification are years of time-period 2018–2020, thus next two years. The question arose of refining and optimizing of the forecast due to the addition of series temporal dynamics of new information. The purpose of these studies is the verification of the predicted values for the previous time period and refinement of extrapolated for the future.