Direct Prediction of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage System Efficiency Using Short-term Push-pull Tests
T. Hermans, N. Lesparre, T. Kremer, J. Caers, F. Nguyen and T. Robert
Event name: Fourth Sustainable Earth Sciences Conference
Session: Energy Storage - Evaluating Novel Concepts
Publication date: 03 September 2017
Info: Extended abstract, PDF ( 1.09Mb )
Price: € 20
Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems are designed to recover in winter the heat stored in the aquifer during summer. In practice however, spatial heterogeneity or non-favorable hydrogeological conditions reduces the energy efficiency. In many cases, a deterministic approach is used to calibrate the subsurface component of those systems, neglecting the quantification of uncertainty. In this contribution, we propose to use the recently-developed prediction-focused approach to forecast the heat storage capacity of an alluvial aquifer. We compare the ability of two different push/pull tests to make this prediction. We first analyze the performance of the method using synthetic cases and validate the approach using field data. For both, we show that the method is able to forecast the posterior distribution with realistic uncertainty. We also identify the experiment which has the highest information content for the desired prediction. Then we forecast the long-term heat storage capacity of the aquifer and assess its uncertainty. This final result can be used to design properly the heat pump associated with the system.