1887

Abstract

Summary

An evaluation based on Gutenberg-Richter b-value, fractal dimension Dc-value, completeness magnitude Mc-value, annual probability and recurrence time of earthquakes is carried out for Tunceli province of Turkey. Earthquake catalog covers the years between 21 September 1970 and 30 December 2016, and contains 5462 earthquakes with magnitude equal to and greater than 1.1. Magnitude completeness is estimated as 2.8 and b-value is found as b=0.98+/-0.01. This b-value is smaller than average value of b=1.0 given for Gutenberg-Richter relation. So, this low b-value may be an indicator of stress to build up over time at the beginning of 2017. Dc-value is obtained as 1.63+/-0.04 with 95% confidence limits. This high Dc-value indicates that seismicity in Tunceli and vicinity is more clustered at larger scales or in smaller areas. Annual probability of the earthquakes between 4.5 and 5.5 magnitude levels exhibits a value between 1 and 10. Recurrence time of the earthquakes has a value between 10 and 30 years for magnitude levels between 5.5 and 6.0, and a value between 30 and 100 years for magnitude levels between 6.0 and 6.5. Consequently, this part of Turkey may have an earthquake potential for the possibility of intense earthquake occurrences in the next future.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201702503
2017-11-05
2024-03-29
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Ali, S.M.
    [2016] Statistical analysis of seismicity in Egypt and its surroundings. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9(52), 1–16.
    [Google Scholar]
  2. Grassberger, P. and Procaccia, I.
    [1983] Measuring the strangeness of strange attractors. Physica, 9(D), 189–208.
    [Google Scholar]
  3. Gutenberg, R. and Richter, C.F.
    [1944] Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34, 185–188.
    [Google Scholar]
  4. Mandelbrot, B. B.
    [1982] The fractal geometry of nature, Freeman Press, San Francisco.
    [Google Scholar]
  5. ÖncelA.O. and Wilson, T.H.
    [2002] Space-Time correlations of ceismotectonic parameters and examples from Japan and Turkey preceding the izmit earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92, 339–350.
    [Google Scholar]
  6. Öztürk, S.
    [2017] Earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian part of Turkey: seismotectonic b and Dc-values, and precursory quiescence Z-value, Frontiers of Earth Science, DOI: 10.1007/s11707‑017‑0642‑3.
    https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-017-0642-3 [Google Scholar]
  7. Polat, O., Gok, E. and Yılmaz, D.
    [2008] Earthquake hazard of the Aegean Extension region (West Turkey). Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 17, 593–614.
    [Google Scholar]
  8. Şaroğlu, F., Emre, O. and Kuşçu, I.
    [1992] Active fault map of Turkey. General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration, Ankara, Turkey.
    [Google Scholar]
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201702503
Loading
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201702503
Loading

Data & Media loading...

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error