oa Geological Chance of Success Estimation for Appraisal Objects in Western Siberia

As known, planning geological prospecting works occurs under conditions of high uncertainty, i.e. lack and inaccuracy of information about the object of research. Concerning, the geological exploration process is very risky, and it is necessary to estimate risks and systematically manage them.

A systematic approach to the geological risks analysis and their permanent analysis is important for increasing efficiency of the exploration program and improves economic performance.

The main tool for geological risk estimation is the geological coefficient of success (gCoS). As the result of world experience analysis in our company, the methodology estimation of geological coefficient of success designed. However, for a correct assessment is required to collect gCoS statistics for different evaluation objects and compare it with the actual results.

In order to approbate the assessment methodology and to calibrate it, an evaluation of exploration and prospecting drilling objects for the coming years ware made. After comparison of the current assessment and results, it will be possible to optimize our approaches to estimating the geological coefficient of success.