Quantified Uncertainty Estimation In Depth Conversion

Depth conversion with quantified base case and uncertainty estimates of depth and gross rock volume is carried out in an exploration area with five structural closeres, using a demo dataset. The study shows how this innovative method is used stand alone in an exploration context. Use in field development studies is very similar. The study investigates some of the common assumptions made in uncertainty estimation, namely the assumption of normal duistribution, and of symmetrical uncertainties in gross rock wolume around a depth base case. These do not hold up well, indicating that there is potential for improving the quality of uncertainty estimation. The solution is to stop guessing, and to start calculating these things.