Regional and local forecasting of landslides and debris flows and assessment of their impact on infrastructure objects
O. Ivanik, V. Shevchuk, M. Lavrenyuk and G. Ivankevich
Event name: 11th International Conference on Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment
Session: Monitoring And Modelling Of Natural Hazards And New Technologies For Risk Minimization And Prevention
Publication date: 19 March 2018
Info: Extended abstract, PDF ( 1.53Mb )
Price: € 20
Assessing the risks of natural hazards is a key element in the effective decision-making process and development of policy in the field of prevention of emergency situations. This is a multi-purpose process that allows us to identify, perform quantitative assessment and understand the scale and consequences of the risks that society faces. The proposed methodology for regional and local forecasting of landslides and debris flows and assessment of their impact on infrastructure objects includes: consistent analysis of geological processes and geological situations within the territories of occurrence of hazardous geological processes; research of natural risks, determination of input parameters of modeling on the basis of theoretical, empirical and experimental data and GIS analysis; the formulation of complex tasks of qualitative and quantitative assessment of the influence of geological processes on the functioning of engineering systems, natural and man-made systems, and calculations of their stress-strain state; development of physical, geological and mathematical models; prediction of the impact of dangerous geological processes; risk assessment of natural hazards; development of preventive measures to minimize the negative impact of hazardous geological processes on critical infrastructure objects. Two main approaches were applied. The first approach is based on a comprehensive analysis of the factors of formation of landslide and debris flows processes using statistical methods, GIS analysis and spatial modeling. The second approach involves field work, monitoring and numerical modelling of landslide and debris flows activity for the local forecast using geophysical methods and geodetic survey.