1887

Abstract

Summary

Considering as much as possible uncertainty sources in risk assessment seems to be a good idea unless it leads to excessive calculations and time cost. For this reason optimization of calculation algorithm is a crucial task for experts operating in the area of uncertainty estimation.

The research is based on multi-realization geomodeling of gas-bearing pre-Fasila formation. The overlying Fasila formation has been penetrated by more than 150 wells. To reduce the uncertainty of pre-Fasila structural model the technique of horizons constructing by adding isochores to a reference surface is applied. The algorithm of error assessment is adapted to the applied technique.

As a result the structural uncertainty for pre-Fasila formation is decreased by 65–70% in comparison with the modeling approach which ignores overlying strata. Furthermore, depth uncertainty becomes negligible in comparison with gross thickness uncertainty, meaning that multi-realization calculations can be significantly simplified by reducing structural uncertainty to gross thickness variation. This effect is presumably produced due to both the applied modeling technique and the simulated object geometric features.

The retrospective analysis of multi-realization modeling outputs allows conclusion that structural modeling algorithm can be simplified without accuracy loss by selection of optimal modeling methods

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201800269
2018-04-09
2024-03-28
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. И.С.Гулиев, Д.Л.Федоров, С.И.Кулаков
    [2009] Нефтегазоносность Каспийского региона.Баку, Nafta-Press
    [Google Scholar]
  2. И.Ф.Глумов, Я.П.Маловицкий, А.А.Новиков, Б.В.Сенин
    [2004] Региональная геология и нефтегазоносность Каспийского моря. Москва, Недра-Бизнесцентр
    [Google Scholar]
  3. О.Дюбрул
    , [2002] Использование геостатистики для включения в геологическую модель сейсмических данных.EAGE
    [Google Scholar]
  4. Garret M.Leahy, ArneSkorstad
    [2013] Неопределенность при интерпретации свойствгеологической среды: новый подход. First Break, 31.
    [Google Scholar]
  5. I.S.Guliev, D.L.Fedorov, S.I.Kulakov
    [2009] Oil and gas potential of the Caspian region.Baku, Nafta-Press
    [Google Scholar]
  6. I.F.Glumov, Ya.P.Malovitskiy, A.A.Novikov, B.V.Senin
    [2004] Regional geology and oil and gas content of Caspian Sea.Moscow, Nedra-Businesscenter
    [Google Scholar]
  7. O.Dubrule
    , [2002] Geostatistics for Seismic Data Integration in Earth Models.EAGE
    [Google Scholar]
  8. Garret M.Leahy, ArneSkorstad
    [2013] Uncertainty in subsurface interpretation: a new workflow. First Break, 31 No 9.
    [Google Scholar]
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201800269
Loading
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201800269
Loading

Data & Media loading...

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error