Full text loading...
-
Methodology of time forecast of exogenous geological processes
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 17th International Conference on Geoinformatics - Theoretical and Applied Aspects, May 2018, Volume 2018, p.1 - 5
Abstract
Taking into account dynamic of the natural conditions, it is necessary to approach the choice of factors of time analysis more precisely, since modern approaches do not provide high reliability of existing methods for their more detailed forecasting of exogenous geological processes (EGP). The task of presenting a new methodology for forecasting exogenous geological processes (in particular, landslide processes) with a clear gradation of the choice of factors for the long-term, medium-term, and short-term forecast, is based on previous studies of authors and proposed new factor characteristics in order to detail them. In particular, the conducted working out in detail concerns the statistical analysis by years, as well as by months within the year, using interdependent factors (precipitation, temperature), solar activity (Wolf number), seismicity, etc. on the example of the Carpathian region. Assuming that the laws of the dynamics of these natural factors do not change for a certain area over time, it is possible to estimate the probability of landslides in the future according to these data.