Exploration Works Planning Using Value of Information Concept in Geological Uncertainties and Project Limitations

The S field development plan is focused on the Jeribe/Upper Dhiban reservoir interval. There is significant uncertainty in estimate of stock-tank oil initially in place (STOIIP) and recoverable resources due to the absence of a defined oil-water contact (OWC) in the wells drilled to date H-1 and S-1.

The field is considered to be developed by six wells. However because of uncertainty in reserves field development balances the need for immediate production with the need to assess the most likely reserve size as quickly as possible in order to optimize the full field facilities.

The approach to optimal drilling sequence finding in geological uncertainties and limiting conditions is offered in the research - evidence from S oil field. The suggested approach is used to recommend optimal drilling sequence of planed wells to reduce economic risks and obtain the highest NPV of S development project. The optimal drilling sequence was found using value of information approach leading to the highest project expected monetary value from more than 120 possible drilling sequences.

The dynamic development strategy that reduces uncertainties and economic risks by VOI approach - drilling risky well in the first two years of production and depending on the outcome realize facility optimization and further drilling was recommended.