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Analysis of Geological Uncertainties and Risks in Reserve Estimation Based on Multivariate Geological Modeling
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, Geomodel 2018, Sep 2018, Volume 2018, p.1 - 5
Abstract
Exploration and estimation of hydrocarbon reservoirs have been always time consuming with risk and uncertainties. In this regard, assessment of reservoir characterizations and information about spatial distribution of its parameters play an important role in choosen of suitable strategies for development program. Uncertainties are quantified by Monte Carlo sampling of probability distributions for the controlling parameters. In this work was applied stochastic modeling approach for quantification of uncertainties. 200 realization of equiprobable geologic models were calculated. Based on this calculation the P10, P50 and P90 cases were determined. The base case characterized with risk of reserves overestimation. The factor analysis shows that the structural uncertainties have the biggest influince on the reserves value. Reccomendations for decrising uncertainties were proposed.