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Modeling of dynamics of activity of mudflow processes on the basis of some factors of influence
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 18th International Conference on Geoinformatics - Theoretical and Applied Aspects, May 2019, Volume 2019, p.1 - 5
Abstract
Summary
The series of mudflow activity and factors are analyzed for the linear dependence between random variables inside the series by using auto regression functions. Models of auto regression in the form of correlograms are constructed. Periodicity is checked with the help of constructed periodograms by the method of spectral analysis. With the aid of correlation and cross-correlation analyzes, the interaction between mudflow activity and factors is traced. As a result of the construction of the crossover regimes of the series of mudflow activity and precipitation at the Rakhiv meteorological station, it was concluded that there is a synastic phase between the rows. By shifting for 10 years of the time series of solar activity, the maximum synapse between rows is achieved. It is logical to assert that on the basis of the existing information on the peaks of solar activity and the amount of precipitation, one can conclude that elevated mudflow activity is increased. The equation for long-term mudflow activity, based on the known values of the annual amount of precipitation and solar activity, is derived.
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